Reality Is Overrated. Conviction Is a Better Currency.
Every so often, someone will ask me:
“What do you think about the fundamentals?”
To which I reply:
“I think they’re an outdated form of financial oppression.”
Let’s be clear:
Reality is for people who can't control the narrative.
In today’s market, conviction is a better currency. Belief moves faster than earnings. Perception prints harder than dividends. And nobody’s checking the receipts if the story is good enough.
The Market Doesn’t Care About Truth It Cares About Momentum
Look around.
Crypto. Meme stocks. SPACs. NFTs. Tech valuations that outpace the laws of physics.
Are these assets “real”?
No.
Do they work?
Also no.
Did they make people rich?
Absolutely.
Why? Because people believed in them. Loudly. Together. And belief is contagious especially when wrapped in jargon and backlit by Bloomberg terminals.
We are not in a market of truth.
We are in a market of story velocity.
And the story with the most conviction wins.
Even if it’s stupid. Especially if it’s stupid.
Conviction as an Asset Class
There’s a reason why venture capitalists fund charisma over cash flow.
There’s a reason why influencers can move markets faster than central banks.
There’s a reason why billionaires announce acquisitions on Twitter and valuations go vertical overnight.
The modern investor doesn’t just look for returns they look for narrative traction.
Your portfolio isn’t a collection of assets. It’s a personality test.
According to a totally unverified survey from the Fictional Institute for Financial Self-Delusion, 84% of investors who made more than 10x on a single trade cited “vibes” as their primary due diligence.
Reality Is a Speed Bump for the Truly Convicted
When you rely on reality, you have to wait.
Wait for cash flow. Wait for earnings. Wait for analyst upgrades.
But when you rely on conviction, you just need a clean graphic and a three-sentence pitch.
Reality is slow. Conviction is scalable.
You don’t need a business model you need belief density.
You don’t need revenue you need a fanbase.
You don’t need clarity you need momentum and merch.
And if you keep that belief loud, bold, and unwavering long enough, someone will write you a check just to shut you up.
Mercer’s Law of Narrative Liquidity:
“If you can’t explain your investment in under 10 words with dead eyes and total confidence, you don’t deserve returns.”
So What Should You Do?
You should stop verifying and start evangelizing.
Don’t research the asset. Become the asset.
You should internalize your trade until you forget why it ever felt risky.
You should embrace volatility as your marketing campaign.
And above all you should believe so hard that other people feel ashamed for doubting you.
Because if you can manifest conviction at scale, reality will eventually submit.
That’s not delusion. That’s alpha.
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Where faith is fully vested and doubt is a short position.
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